Bitcoin (BTC) is the largest cryptocurrency by market value and the one most other crypto assets are measured against. This page is a data reference, not a forecast. It shows bitcoin’s price by month for the last two years, calendar-year returns and drawdowns, what happened after each halving in our data, how volatile the price is, which months have tended to be strong or weak, and where the main moving averages sit. The figures are recalculated automatically from the same market-data feed as the Finbexo ticker; the latest daily close used is from 28 Oct 2026.
Bitcoin price snapshot (as of 28 Oct 2026)
- Last daily close: $81,256 (28 Oct 2026, UTC)
- Change this year: -7.1% versus last year’s final close
- 52-week range: $57,748 to $116,079
- Record high in our data: $126,198 on 6 Oct 2025, so BTC trades 35.6% below it
- 50-day / 200-day average: $81,888 / $73,067
- Realised volatility (annualised): 25% over 30 days, 38% over 90 days, 66% since 17 Sep 2014
In plain terms, bitcoin is below its 50-day average and above its 200-day average. Recent volatility is below its long-run norm. So far in Oct 2026, BTC has moved -2.8% from the previous month-end close, trading between $79,146 and $87,146. The record above is the highest intraday price in our feed; data providers that use different exchanges report slightly different peaks (CoinGecko lists $126,080 on 6 October 2025, still the record on 28 October 2026).
If you follow Ethereum as well, our Ethereum price analysis uses the same method, so the two pages can be compared line by line.
Bitcoin price by month: the last 24 months
Each row is one calendar month (UTC). “Change” is the move from the previous month’s close to this month’s close, “range” is how far the high was above the low, and “volatility” is the annualised standard deviation of daily returns within the month. A month marked “to date” is still in progress.
| Month | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 (to date) | $83,554 | $87,146 | $79,146 | $81,256 | -2.8% | 10% | 26% |
| Sep 2026 | $78,540 | $87,364 | $74,945 | $83,554 | +6.4% | 17% | 42% |
| Aug 2026 | $62,814 | $81,347 | $62,227 | $78,549 | +25.1% | 31% | 42% |
| Jul 2026 | $58,562 | $66,910 | $57,748 | $62,814 | +7.3% | 16% | 31% |
| Jun 2026 | $73,580 | $73,970 | $58,076 | $58,559 | -20.4% | 27% | 44% |
| May 2026 | $76,305 | $82,792 | $72,436 | $73,580 | -3.6% | 14% | 25% |
| Apr 2026 | $68,233 | $79,488 | $65,725 | $76,304 | +11.8% | 21% | 37% |
| Mar 2026 | $67,006 | $75,988 | $64,972 | $68,233 | +1.8% | 17% | 50% |
| Feb 2026 | $78,626 | $79,323 | $60,074 | $66,996 | -14.8% | 32% | 84% |
| Jan 2026 | $87,508 | $97,861 | $75,816 | $78,621 | -10.2% | 29% | 44% |
| Dec 2025 | $90,389 | $94,602 | $83,862 | $87,509 | -3.2% | 13% | 35% |
| Nov 2025 | $109,559 | $111,167 | $80,660 | $90,394 | -17.5% | 38% | 46% |
| Oct 2025 | $114,058 | $126,198 | $103,598 | $109,556 | -3.9% | 22% | 42% |
| Sep 2025 | $108,229 | $117,912 | $107,271 | $114,056 | +5.4% | 10% | 25% |
| Aug 2025 | $115,739 | $124,457 | $107,444 | $108,237 | -6.5% | 16% | 36% |
| Jul 2025 | $107,144 | $123,092 | $105,157 | $115,758 | +8.0% | 17% | 26% |
| Jun 2025 | $104,637 | $110,561 | $98,286 | $107,135 | +2.4% | 12% | 32% |
| May 2025 | $94,213 | $111,970 | $93,400 | $104,638 | +11.1% | 20% | 35% |
| Apr 2025 | $82,552 | $95,768 | $74,437 | $94,207 | +14.1% | 29% | 55% |
| Mar 2025 | $84,374 | $95,043 | $76,624 | $82,549 | -2.2% | 24% | 68% |
| Feb 2025 | $102,403 | $102,756 | $78,249 | $84,373 | -17.6% | 31% | 39% |
| Jan 2025 | $93,425 | $109,115 | $89,260 | $102,405 | +9.6% | 22% | 44% |
| Dec 2024 | $96,461 | $108,268 | $91,317 | $93,429 | -3.1% | 19% | 45% |
| Nov 2024 | $70,217 | $99,656 | $66,804 | $96,449 | +37.4% | 49% | 61% |
The table shows how uneven bitcoin’s path is. Strong months tend to come in clusters, and so do weak ones, so a single month’s change says little about the next one. Check the range column too: a month can close nearly flat after a large two-way swing that leveraged positions must survive.
Calendar-year returns, highs, lows and drawdowns
“Return” is the year’s final close against the previous year’s final close. “Largest decline” is the deepest fall from the year’s running peak, measured on daily closes.
| Year | Return | Highest close | Lowest close | Largest decline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 (to date) | -7.1% | $96,929 | $58,559 | -39.6% |
| 2025 | -6.3% | $124,753 | $76,272 | -32.1% |
| 2024 | +121.1% | $106,141 | $39,507 | -26.2% |
| 2023 | +155.4% | $44,167 | $16,625 | -20.1% |
| 2022 | -64.3% | $47,687 | $15,787 | -66.9% |
| 2021 | +59.7% | $67,567 | $29,374 | -53.1% |
| 2020 | +303.2% | $29,002 | $4,971 | -51.9% |
| 2019 | +92.2% | $13,016 | $3,399 | -49.0% |
| 2018 | -73.6% | $17,527 | $3,237 | -81.5% |
| 2017 | +1,368.9% | $19,497 | $778 | -35.5% |
| 2016 | +123.8% | $976 | $364 | -28.6% |
| 2015 | +34.5% | $465 | $178 | -43.5% |
Across the whole dataset, which begins on 17 Sep 2014, the deepest peak-to-trough fall in daily closes was 83.4%, from a peak on 16 Dec 2017 to a trough on 15 Dec 2018. Falls of more than half from a record are common in bitcoin’s history. They have usually taken months or years to recover, which matters more to most holders than the size of the eventual rebound.
Bitcoin halving cycles
New bitcoin enters circulation as a reward to the miner of each block. The Bitcoin Core software sets that subsidy at 50 BTC and cuts it in half every 210,000 blocks; a comment in the source code notes that this happens approximately every four years. The four halvings so far, with block times from the mempool.space block explorer (UTC):
- 28 November 2012, block 210,000: subsidy cut from 50 to 25 BTC
- 9 July 2016, block 420,000: 25 to 12.5 BTC
- 11 May 2020, block 630,000: 12.5 to 6.25 BTC
- 20 April 2024, block 840,000: 6.25 to 3.125 BTC
At 3.125 BTC per block and roughly 144 blocks a day, miners now receive about 450 new bitcoin a day, or about 164,000 a year, around 0.8% of the supply in circulation. The next halving, at block 1,050,000, will cut the subsidy to 1.5625 BTC.
When is the next halving?
The next halving is expected around March to April 2028, but the date is an estimate because the rule is set by block height, not by the calendar. On 28 October 2026 the chain tip was block 973,542, leaving about 76,500 blocks to go. At the 10-minute target spacing that points to mid-April 2028. Blocks were arriving a little faster than that in October 2026, about every 9.4 minutes according to mempool.space, which would bring the date into March 2028. The estimate will narrow as the block approaches.
What happened after previous halvings
The table shows the closing price on each halving day in our data, the close 12 and 18 months later, and the highest close within 24 months. Our daily data starts in September 2014, so the 2012 halving is not included.
| Halving | Close on the day | 12 months later | 18 months later | Highest close within 24 months | Gain to that high |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Jul 2016 (block 420,000) | $651 | $2,518 (+287%) | $15,170 (+2,230%) | $19,497 (16 Dec 2017) | +2,895% |
| 11 May 2020 (block 630,000) | $8,602 | $56,705 (+559%) | $64,995 (+656%) | $67,567 (8 Nov 2021) | +685% |
| 20 Apr 2024 (block 840,000) | $64,994 | $85,174 (+31%) | $110,589 (+70%) | $124,753 (6 Oct 2025) | +92% |
In each of the three cycles covered, bitcoin was higher a year later and set a new high within two years, and the percentage gain to that high was smaller each time. That pattern is the basis of the popular “four-year cycle” view. Treat it with caution. Three observations are a very small sample, and the market has changed a great deal: the latest cycle included US spot exchange-traded products, large corporate buyers and a much larger derivatives market. The 2024 halving cut new supply by about 450 BTC a day, which is small next to daily trading volume and fund flows, so the halving alone does not explain later price moves. Nothing in the table is a forecast of what will follow the 2028 halving.
Supply, ETFs and large holders
Bitcoin’s supply is capped. The bitcoin.org FAQ states that only 21 million bitcoins will ever be created, and the halving schedule is how issuance falls towards that limit. CoinGecko showed a circulating supply of about 20.10 million BTC on 28 October 2026, which leaves fewer than 900,000 coins still to be mined, around 4% of the cap.
Two kinds of buyer now hold a large share of that supply:
- Spot bitcoin ETPs. The US Securities and Exchange Commission approved the listing and trading of spot bitcoin exchange-traded product shares on 10 January 2024. The largest, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), reported net assets of about $65.4 billion on 27 October 2026 on its fund page; at that day’s close this is roughly 0.8 million BTC (our calculation). Daily creations and redemptions in these funds are among the most closely watched demand signals; for an example, see our report on ETF inflows ending an outflow streak.
- Corporate treasuries. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) said in an SEC filing on 26 October 2026 that it held about 848,517 BTC as of 25 October 2026, bought for an aggregate $64.02 billion, or about $75,446 per coin. That stake is about 4.2% of the circulating supply.
The US government also holds bitcoin. An executive order signed on 6 March 2025 created a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, funded with bitcoin forfeited to the government; the order says reserve bitcoin shall not be sold and that any additional purchases must be budget neutral. Our report on the US government moving $288M of seized crypto to Coinbase Prime shows why on-chain transfers of government wallets draw so much attention.
How volatile is bitcoin?
Realised volatility measures how much the price has actually moved. Over the last 30 days it was 25% on an annualised basis, against 38% over 90 days and 66% over the full history since 17 Sep 2014. Dividing the annual figure by about 19 (the square root of 365) gives a rough typical one-day move; dividing by about 3.5 (the square root of 12) gives a rough typical one-month move. Bitcoin is far more volatile than a broad stock index: our guide to managing market volatility computes the S&P 500’s long-run figure with the same method, at under 20% a year since 1990.
Of the 144 complete months in our data, 81 ended higher. The median month moved +3.1%, and in half of all months the price moved by 12.0% or more in one direction or the other. In 39 months the price rose or fell by 20% or more. The best month was May 2017 (+69.6%) and the worst was Jun 2022 (-37.8%). At moves of this size, position size matters more than entry price.
Bitcoin seasonality by month
For each calendar month: how many complete years are in the data, how many of them closed higher, and the median change from the previous month’s close. We use the median because a single extreme year can distort an average.
| Month | Years | Up | Median change |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 12 | 6 | -3.5% |
| February | 12 | 9 | +11.9% |
| March | 12 | 6 | -0.2% |
| April | 12 | 8 | +9.7% |
| May | 12 | 6 | +3.4% |
| June | 12 | 6 | -0.5% |
| July | 12 | 9 | +8.1% |
| August | 12 | 4 | -7.2% |
| September | 12 | 6 | -0.2% |
| October | 12 | 9 | +12.9% |
| November | 12 | 7 | +7.6% |
| December | 12 | 5 | -3.2% |
The highest median change has been in October (+12.9%) and the lowest in August (-7.2%). Each month has only about a decade of observations, so a month that rose in, say, nine of twelve years has not shown a reliable edge. Do not treat any row as a trading rule.
Moving averages and key levels
Many traders watch the same handful of reference points, and that is the main reason they can matter in the short run:
- 50-day average ($81,888) and 200-day average ($73,067). A price above both is usually read as an uptrend, and below both as a downtrend. When the 50-day crosses the 200-day, commentators call it a “golden cross” (upward) or “death cross” (downward). These signals lag because they are built from past prices.
- The 52-week range ($57,748 to $116,079). The extremes of the past year, where earlier buying or selling stalled.
- The record high ($126,198 on 6 Oct 2025).
- Large holders’ cost bases. Strategy’s reported average cost of about $75,446 per bitcoin (25 October 2026) is one widely quoted level. Investors also watch the average purchase price of recent buyers, as in our note on the short-term holder cost basis.
Use these levels as risk context, for example to decide where an idea is wrong. They are not targets, and bitcoin regularly trades straight through them.
What moves the bitcoin price
- ETF and fund flows. Since January 2024, US spot ETP creations and redemptions have been a direct channel between traditional investors and the spot market. Sustained inflows or outflows over several weeks tend to show up in the price.
- Interest rates and the dollar. Bitcoin tends to trade as a high-risk asset, so it is sensitive to the outlook for interest rates. The Federal Reserve kept its target range at 3.50%–3.75% at every meeting from January to July 2026, then raised it to 3.75%–4.00% on 16 September 2026, after saying earlier in the year that inflation partly reflected supply shocks including energy. Check the Fed’s meeting calendar for the latest decision.
- Leverage and liquidations. Perpetual futures let traders take large positions on small margins. When the price moves sharply, forced liquidations can speed the move up in either direction, which often explains the biggest single-day swings. See our bitcoin derivatives market analysis.
- Supply and the halving. New issuance is fixed and falling and changes only at halvings. Supply that is already mined matters more: what long-term holders, miners, funds and treasury companies are willing to sell can outweigh the halving’s effect.
- Regulation and policy. Examples include the SEC’s 2024 approval of spot ETPs, the 2025 reserve order and the GENIUS Act on stablecoins, which the White House says was signed on 18 July 2025. The House passed the CLARITY Act, a broader crypto market-structure bill, by 294 votes to 134 on 17 July 2025; check Congress.gov for its progress in the Senate.
How to read bitcoin price predictions
Searches such as “bitcoin price prediction” or “bitcoin forecast for the next six months” return a wide range of numbers. Read them as scenarios rather than facts:
- Check who made the forecast and when. A forecast is only meaningful with a named source, a date and a time horizon. Targets from a year ago were made at a different price and with different interest rates.
- Look for the assumptions. A useful forecast says what has to happen, such as ETF inflows, rate cuts or a repeat of the halving pattern, for the target to be reached.
- Compare with market-implied odds. Prediction markets and options prices show what traders are paying for different outcomes. These are probabilities, not promises. Our report on bitcoin price forecasts for 30 June 2026 explains how such contracts frame the price as ranges for a single date.
- Size against volatility. At bitcoin’s typical volatility a 20% move within a few months is ordinary, so even a correct long-term view can be painful along the way.
Methodology and limitations
- Data: daily BTC-USD prices from the Yahoo Finance chart API (the provider behind our site ticker), from 17 Sep 2014 to 28 Oct 2026. Days run in UTC. Yahoo’s history does not cover bitcoin’s earliest years, so the 2012 halving and earlier prices are excluded.
- Monthly and yearly figures: change is the period-end close against the previous period-end close. The current month and year are shown to date and excluded from the statistics.
- Volatility: standard deviation of daily log returns, annualised with 365 days because bitcoin trades every day.
- Moving averages: simple averages of the last 50 and 200 daily closes. Record high and 52-week range use intraday highs and lows; drawdowns and the halving table use daily closes.
- Halving table: the close on the halving date and the first close on or after the dates 12 months (365 days) and 18 months (548 days) later, plus the highest close within 730 days.
- Seasonality: median monthly change for each calendar month, complete months only.
- Limitations: providers use different exchanges and cut-off times, so their figures can differ slightly from ours. Past returns, cycles and seasonal patterns do not predict future prices. The market figures refresh at most every 12 hours; dated facts in the text show the date they refer to.
Frequently asked questions
What is the bitcoin price today?
BTC/USD closed at $81,256 on 28 Oct 2026 (UTC daily close in our market-data feed), -7.1% since the end of last year. Over the past 52 weeks it traded between $57,748 and $116,079. Prices move around the clock, so a live exchange quote may differ.
When is the next bitcoin halving?
The next halving happens at block 1,050,000, when the block subsidy falls from 3.125 to 1.5625 BTC. On 28 October 2026 the chain was at block 973,542, which points to roughly March to April 2028. The exact date depends on how fast blocks are found, so it is an estimate.
What happened to bitcoin after previous halvings?
In the three halvings covered by our data (2016, 2020 and 2024), bitcoin was higher 12 months later and reached a new high within two years, but the percentage gain was smaller each time. Three cycles are a very small sample and the market now includes spot ETFs and large corporate holders, so this history is not a forecast.
What are bitcoin's best and worst months historically?
Since 17 Sep 2014, the best single month in our data was May 2017 (+69.6%) and the worst was Jun 2022 (-37.8%). Of 144 complete months, 81 ended higher. With only about a decade of data per calendar month, no month is a reliable bet.
How volatile is bitcoin compared with stocks?
Bitcoin's annualised realised volatility was 25% over the last 30 days and 66% over all data since 17 Sep 2014. By the same method the S&P 500 has averaged under 20% a year since 1990, so bitcoin's swings are typically several times larger.
Related Finbexo coverage
- Bitcoin price forecasts for 30 June 2026
- US government moves $288M in seized crypto to Coinbase Prime
- Bitcoin ETFs end an outflow streak with $221 million of inflows
- Bitcoin approaches the short-term holder cost basis
- Bitcoin derivatives market analysis, September 2026
- Bitcoin vs. Strategy (MSTR) stock
- Changes to Strategy's bitcoin plan and the MSTR outlook
- Bitcoin hits a 12-week high (August 2026)
Sources and method
- Price data: Yahoo Finance chart API, BTC-USD daily history since 17 Sep 2014, retrieved by Finbexo; data as of 28 Oct 2026
- Bitcoin Core source code, block subsidy rule (validation.cpp)
- mempool.space block explorer: halving block times and chain height (accessed 28 Oct 2026)
- bitcoin.org FAQ: 21 million supply limit
- CoinGecko, Bitcoin: all-time high and circulating supply (accessed 28 Oct 2026)
- U.S. SEC, Statement on the approval of spot bitcoin exchange-traded products (10 Jan 2024)
- iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) fund page: net assets as of 27 Oct 2026
- Strategy Inc., Form 8-K filed 26 Oct 2026 (bitcoin holdings as of 25 Oct 2026)
- The White House, Executive order establishing the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (6 Mar 2025)
- The White House, Fact sheet: GENIUS Act signed into law (18 Jul 2025)
- U.S. House Clerk, Roll Call 199: CLARITY Act (17 Jul 2025)
- Federal Reserve, FOMC statement (16 Sep 2026) and meeting calendar
- Calculations: Finbexo (method described above)