Crude oil is the world's most traded commodity, and two futures contracts set the reference price for most of it: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) in the United States and Brent in the North Sea. In 2026 both went through the biggest supply shock on record. This guide explains what moves the two benchmarks, why OPEC+ kept adding supply even while prices were falling, and what the official forecasters expect for 2027. It uses Finbexo's futures data alongside figures from the EIA, the IEA, OPEC and the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
Key numbers
- WTI front-month futures: $101.64 per barrel at the 28 Oct 2026 settlement, +69.0% from a year earlier. 52-week range: $54.98 to $119.48.
- Brent front-month futures: $111.30 per barrel, +72.8% year on year and +82.9% since the start of 2026. 52-week range: $58.72 to $126.10.
- Brent-WTI spread: $9.66 per barrel, against a five-year average of $4.40.
- EIA forecast (October 2026 STEO): Brent spot averages $96 in 2026 and $84 in 2027. WTI averages $88 in 2026 and $80 in 2027.
- OPEC+ policy: the seven countries still running voluntary cuts have held quotas at September 2026 levels for October and November. They next meet on 1 November 2026, and the full OPEC+ ministerial meeting is on 29 November 2026.
The official outlook: EIA, IEA and OPEC
The U.S. Energy Information Administration published its Short-Term Energy Outlook on 6 October 2026. Its modelling assumes that Middle East oil flows stay constrained through the fourth quarter of 2026 and then recover gradually, helped by convoys through the Strait of Hormuz, bypass pipelines and ship-to-ship transfers. The main figures are in the table below.
| EIA STEO, October 2026 | 2025 | 2026F | 2027F |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent spot, $/bbl | 69.04 | 96.32 | 83.74 |
| WTI spot, $/bbl | 65.40 | 88.21 | 79.74 |
| Brent, quarterly path | 4Q25: 63.63 | 4Q26: 104.69 | 1Q27: 94.90 · 4Q27: 73.94 |
| WTI, quarterly path | 4Q25: 59.64 | 4Q26: 97.00 | 1Q27: 90.90 · 4Q27: 69.94 |
| World liquids production, mb/d | 106.3 | 101.1 | 109.6 |
| World liquids consumption, mb/d | 104.4 | 102.4 | 104.6 |
| Global inventories, mb/d (+ build / − draw) | +1.9 | −1.3 | +4.9 |
| U.S. crude production, mb/d | 13.7 | 13.9 | 14.3 |
EIA's forecast changed a great deal during the year. In its January 2026 edition, before the war, it expected Brent to average $56 in 2026 and $54 in 2027. The October forecast is $40 higher for 2026. It also builds in a very large swing for 2027: as Gulf output returns, world production is forecast to exceed consumption by about 4.9 million barrels per day (mb/d). That surplus is why EIA has Brent falling to about $74 by late 2027.
The other two monthly reports disagree on demand. The IEA's Oil Market Report of 14 October 2026 expects world oil demand to fall by 2.6 mb/d in 2026, to 102.4 mb/d, and to recover by only 2 mb/d in 2027. That would leave 2027 consumption 620,000 b/d below 2025. The IEA sees supply dropping 5.8 mb/d in 2026 and then rebounding 7.7 mb/d in 2027. OPEC's October 2026 Monthly Oil Market Report is far more optimistic. It puts 2026 demand at 105.7 mb/d, up 0.18 mb/d, and 2027 at 108.3 mb/d, up 2.55 mb/d. A gap of more than 3 mb/d between the two agencies is unusually wide. It mostly reflects different judgements about how much high prices and missing supply have destroyed demand.
What drives WTI and Brent
Inventories and the supply-demand balance
Prices respond less to production or consumption on their own than to the gap between them, which shows up in inventories. In 2025, supply ran ahead of demand: the IEA reported that global observed stocks reached a four-year high of 7,909 million barrels in August 2025, and Brent traded around $64 in October 2025. In 2026 the gap reversed. By the IEA's count, global stocks were 509 million barrels lower at the end of September than at the end of February, and stocks held on land were the lowest since at least 2016.
OPEC+ policy and spare capacity
The OPEC+ alliance decides how much of its idle capacity comes to market. Until 2026, its voluntary cuts were the main support for prices. See below.
Geopolitics and chokepoints
Before the 2026 war, around 20 mb/d of crude and products passed through the Strait of Hormuz, according to the IEA's March 2026 report. No other chokepoint carries that much oil.
U.S. shale costs
U.S. output responds to price with a delay of a few months. Breakeven costs, covered below, mark roughly where new drilling stops paying.
The dollar, the economy and refined products
Oil is priced in dollars, so a stronger dollar makes it more expensive for other buyers. Economic growth drives fuel demand. Refinery margins also feed back into crude prices: diesel benchmarks in Europe and the U.S. hit all-time highs of around $220 per barrel in 2026, the IEA reported in October.
Brent vs WTI: what is the difference?
WTI is a light, sweet crude produced in Texas and southern Oklahoma and traded at Cushing, Oklahoma (EIA definitions). The NYMEX WTI futures contract is physically delivered at Cushing, so it reflects inland U.S. pipeline and storage conditions. Brent is the North Sea benchmark. ICE Brent futures are 1,000-barrel contracts that settle through exchange-for-physical delivery, with an option to cash-settle against the ICE Brent Index (ICE contract specifications). The physical Dated Brent basket has expanded over time from Brent alone to Forties, Oseberg, Ekofisk and Troll. In 2023 it added U.S. WTI Midland, delivered to Europe, as reported by the Wall Street Journal on 31 May 2023.
Brent is seaborne and is used to price most internationally traded crude, so it normally trades above WTI. In our data the spread is now $9.66, against a five-year average of $4.40. In 2026 the spread widened because the disruption hit seaborne Eastern Hemisphere supply hardest, while U.S. inland crude kept flowing. EIA's forecast gap of about $8 for 2026 shows this. A second gap opened in 2026 between futures and physical cargoes. When the IEA was writing its October report, Dated Brent stood at about $134 per barrel while Brent futures were near $107.
Why OPEC+ increased supply despite falling prices
The cuts OPEC+ is now reversing come in two layers. In April 2023, eight members (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman) announced voluntary cuts of 1.65 mb/d. In November 2023 they added a further 2.2 mb/d. On 5 December 2024 they agreed to return the 2.2 mb/d gradually from April 2025 to September 2026. The same decision raised the UAE's required production by 300,000 b/d, phased in over the same period (OPEC, 3 March 2025). The schedule then sped up sharply:
| Meeting | Applies to | Change (kb/d) | Layer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Apr 2025 | May 2025 | +411 | 2.2 mb/d |
| 3 May 2025 | Jun 2025 | +411 | 2.2 mb/d |
| 31 May 2025 | Jul 2025 | +411 | 2.2 mb/d |
| 5 Jul 2025 | Aug 2025 | +548 | 2.2 mb/d |
| 3 Aug 2025 | Sep 2025 | +547 | 2.2 mb/d |
| 7 Sep / 5 Oct / 2 Nov 2025 | Oct, Nov, Dec 2025 | +137 each | 1.65 mb/d |
| 2 Nov 2025 | Jan–Mar 2026 | pause | seasonality |
| 1 Mar / 5 Apr 2026 | Apr, May 2026 | +206 each | 1.65 mb/d |
| 3 May / 7 Jun / 5 Jul / 2 Aug 2026 | Jun–Sep 2026 | +188 each (seven countries) | 1.65 mb/d |
| 6 Sep / 4 Oct 2026 | Oct, Nov 2026 | hold at September level | – |
Sources: the eight- and seven-country statements on OPEC's press release pages. The 2.2 mb/d layer was returned in six months rather than the planned eighteen. In 2025, each increase came while Brent was falling. The IEA's May 2025 report recorded Brent dropping about $14 in April 2025, to a four-year low just above $60. In 2026 the pattern repeated on a different scale: the seven countries kept raising quotas from June to September even as WTI fell from $112.95 on 7 April to $68.55 on 6 July (Yahoo Finance settlements). There were four main reasons.
- The official rationale. OPEC's 2025 statements pointed each time to "healthy market fundamentals, as reflected in the low oil inventories". The same statements said that higher quotas give members with past overproduction "an opportunity to accelerate their compensation". Under the March 2025 plans, that compensation was due to be completed by June 2026.
- Quota discipline. The IEA noted in May 2025 that Kazakhstan, the UAE, Iraq and Russia were already producing above their targets, so the real increase would be smaller than the headline figure. Raising quotas brought the targets closer to what some members were already pumping.
- The UAE. The 300,000 b/d baseline increase acknowledged the UAE's larger capacity. From the 3 May 2026 meeting onward, OPEC's statements on the voluntary cuts name seven countries instead of eight, without the UAE, and EIA's October 2026 STEO lists OPEC's members without it.
- Market share. OPEC+ has not said this, but the numbers point to it. EIA's September 2025 STEO expected countries outside OPEC+ to supply 1.7 mb/d of the 2025 production growth, mostly the U.S., Brazil, Canada and Guyana. Holding back barrels while rivals grow gives up share for good. Releasing them while prices sat near shale breakevens limits that growth.
Since March 2026, quotas have mattered less than physical access to markets. Saudi Arabia's required production for November 2026 is 10.478 mb/d, but the IEA estimates that it actually pumped 8.3 mb/d in September. That was up from 5.97 mb/d in August, as Gulf exports recovered. The ministers' statement of 12 October 2026 says shipping and insurance costs have reached "more than one third of the commodity value". The 41st ministerial meeting on 7 June 2026 kept the group-wide production level in place until 31 December 2026. It also ordered an assessment of each country's maximum sustainable capacity, which will serve as the reference for 2027 baselines.
The 2026 Hormuz disruption
- 28 February 2026: the United States and Israel began air strikes on Iran. Tanker traffic through Hormuz almost stopped. The IEA said Gulf producers cut output by at least 10 mb/d and called it "the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market" (IEA, 12 March 2026).
- 11 March 2026: IEA member countries agreed to release 400 million barrels from emergency stocks, the largest release in the agency's history.
- March–April: global supply fell 10.1 mb/d in March. Early-April loadings through the Strait averaged about 3.8 mb/d, against more than 20 mb/d in February (IEA, 14 April 2026). Brent futures settled at $118.35 on 31 March, their 2026 high in our data.
- May–June: EIA estimates that shut-in Middle East production peaked at 10.9 mb/d in May. Hormuz flows rose from a May low of 9.6 mb/d to about 12 mb/d after a U.S.-Iran interim agreement, and Brent traded near $81 in mid-June (IEA, 17 June 2026). OECD government stocks were the lowest since December 1990.
- September: attacks on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, which EIA estimates had carried more than 5 mb/d of exports to Yanbu, temporarily halted flows. EIA says Brent spot reached $131 on 15 September. On 29 September the U.S. announced exchanges of 40 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Shut-ins eased to 4.8 mb/d in September (EIA STEO, 6 October 2026).
- October: on 2 October, G7 leaders committed to speeding up delivery of the emergency stocks already agreed, with diesel as the priority. September flows through Hormuz averaged 10.9 mb/d, plus 5.6 mb/d through bypass routes (IEA, 14 October 2026).
Breakeven costs: the price floor from U.S. shale
In the Dallas Fed Energy Survey released on 25 March 2026, oil producers said they need an average WTI price of $66 per barrel to drill a new well profitably, up from $65 a year earlier. The figure ranged from $62 to $70 depending on the region, and the Permian Basin averaged $67. Large firms need $59 and small firms $68. Covering operating costs on existing wells takes about $43. In the third-quarter survey (30 September 2026), respondents expected WTI at $88 by the end of 2026 and $79 two years out. The answer chosen most often for when Persian Gulf exports return to normal was "by second quarter 2027".
WTI and Brent price history
The table shows yearly averages of daily front-month settlements in our feed since 2007. It covers the 2008 spike, the 2014–2016 collapse, the 2020 pandemic and the 2022 and 2026 shocks. The highest Brent settlement in the series is $146.08, on 3 Jul 2008.
| Year | WTI average | WTI low / high | Brent average | Brent low / high |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 (to date) | 84.97 | 55.99 / 112.95 | 90.91 | 59.96 / 118.35 |
| 2025 | 64.74 | 55.27 / 80.04 | 68.10 | 58.92 / 82.03 |
| 2024 | 75.76 | 65.75 / 86.91 | 79.82 | 69.19 / 91.17 |
| 2023 | 77.60 | 66.74 / 93.68 | 82.19 | 71.84 / 96.55 |
| 2022 | 94.33 | 71.02 / 123.70 | 98.97 | 76.10 / 127.98 |
| 2021 | 68.11 | 47.62 / 84.65 | 70.95 | 51.09 / 86.40 |
| 2020 | 39.65 | 10.01 / 63.27 | 43.09 | 19.33 / 68.91 |
| 2019 | 57.04 | 46.54 / 66.30 | 64.16 | 54.91 / 74.57 |
| 2018 | 64.95 | 42.53 / 76.41 | 71.77 | 50.47 / 86.29 |
| 2017 | 50.85 | 42.53 / 60.42 | 54.73 | 44.82 / 67.02 |
| 2016 | 43.44 | 26.21 / 54.06 | 45.16 | 27.88 / 56.22 |
| 2015 | 48.76 | 34.73 / 61.43 | 53.50 | 36.11 / 67.77 |
| 2014 | 92.91 | 53.27 / 107.26 | 99.28 | 57.33 / 115.06 |
| 2013 | 98.05 | 86.68 / 110.53 | 108.67 | 99.13 / 118.90 |
| 2012 | 94.21 | 77.69 / 109.77 | 111.72 | 89.23 / 126.22 |
| 2011 | 95.11 | 75.67 / 113.93 | 110.99 | 93.33 / 126.65 |
| 2010 | 79.61 | 68.01 / 91.51 | 80.36 | 69.55 / 94.75 |
| 2009 | 62.09 | 33.98 / 81.37 | 63.57 | 40.75 / 79.69 |
| 2008 | 99.75 | 33.87 / 145.29 | 98.95 | 36.61 / 146.08 |
Prices in US dollars per barrel. The data begin in 2007 for Brent, so the table starts with the first full year, 2008. WTI’s negative settlement of April 2020 is not included in the feed, so the 2020 WTI low shown is the lowest positive settlement.
Recent monthly trading
The last 12 months show the whole cycle. WTI averaged under $60 in December 2025. It jumped in March 2026, fell back below $70 in early July as Hormuz flows recovered, and climbed again from August. In September, attacks on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline interrupted a key bypass route.
| Month | WTI avg | WTI low–high | Brent avg | Brent low–high | Brent close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 (to date) | 96.27 | 86.86–110.48 | 107.34 | 96.56–117.42 | 111.30 |
| Sep 2026 | 95.69 | 86.13–106.75 | 102.26 | 90.73–110.19 | 103.53 |
| Aug 2026 | 82.45 | 74.24–89.00 | 88.08 | 78.13–94.81 | 90.49 |
| Jul 2026 | 79.22 | 67.04–93.50 | 84.51 | 70.14–102.01 | 90.12 |
| Jun 2026 | 81.79 | 68.56–97.00 | 84.62 | 71.40–99.00 | 72.92 |
| May 2026 | 98.51 | 86.35–109.47 | 104.09 | 91.46–115.25 | 92.05 |
| Apr 2026 | 98.06 | 80.56–117.63 | 102.46 | 86.08–126.10 | 114.01 |
| Mar 2026 | 91.00 | 69.20–119.48 | 99.60 | 75.79–119.40 | 118.35 |
| Feb 2026 | 64.52 | 61.12–67.83 | 69.41 | 65.19–72.99 | 72.48 |
| Jan 2026 | 60.26 | 55.76–66.48 | 64.77 | 59.45–71.88 | 70.69 |
| Dec 2025 | 57.87 | 54.98–60.50 | 61.63 | 58.72–64.08 | 60.85 |
| Nov 2025 | 59.48 | 57.10–61.50 | 63.68 | 61.61–65.31 | 63.20 |
How volatile is oil?
WTI's annualised volatility over the past 30 trading days is 37%, and over the past year it is 56%, compared with 43% across the whole series. A moderate long-run average still contains rare, violent episodes such as 2008, 2020 and 2026. Our guide to managing market volatility covers position sizing for markets like this one. The natural gas and LNG outlook explains why the Hormuz disruption also affected gas prices.
What to watch
- 1 November 2026: the seven OPEC+ countries' monthly meeting on December quotas.
- 10 November 2026: EIA's next Short-Term Energy Outlook. It will be the first to reflect the G7 stock commitment of 2 October.
- Mid-November: the IEA and OPEC monthly reports. Watch whether their 2026–2027 demand estimates move closer together.
- 29 November 2026: the 42nd OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting. 2027 production baselines are due to draw on the capacity assessments ordered in June.
- Hormuz and bypass flows: EIA assumes 4.5 mb/d of production stays shut in during 4Q26. A faster recovery would pull forward the 2027 surplus.
- 16 December 2026: the Dallas Fed's fourth-quarter energy survey, which shows how U.S. drillers are responding to WTI near $100.
- Weekly: EIA's Wednesday petroleum status report on U.S. crude and product stocks, including Cushing, which drives the WTI side of the spread.
For recent market news, see our coverage of OPEC+ raising output despite falling prices and the October 2026 oil price analysis.
Methodology and limitations
Market figures use daily settlement prices for the continuous front-month NYMEX WTI (CL=F) and ICE Brent (BZ=F) futures contracts from the Yahoo Finance chart API. Yearly and monthly figures are simple averages, lows and highs of daily closes. Year-on-year and year-to-date changes compare the latest settlement with the nearest earlier trading day. The spread is Brent minus WTI on the same date. Volatility is the annualised standard deviation of daily log returns, scaled by the square root of 252 trading days. The front-month series rolls between contracts, so it differs from EIA spot prices and from physical Dated Brent, which traded far above futures for much of 2026. Forecasts by EIA, IEA, OPEC and survey respondents are dated estimates that changed sharply this year. They are not Finbexo predictions or trading advice.
Frequently asked questions
Why is OPEC+ increasing oil production despite falling prices?
Eight OPEC+ members began returning 2.2 million b/d of voluntary cuts in April 2025, then sped up to monthly increases of 411,000-548,000 b/d even though Brent fell to a four-year low near $60. OPEC said it was acting on healthy market fundamentals and low inventories, and that higher quotas would help members that had overproduced to compensate. The IEA noted that several members were already pumping above their targets. The numbers also point to a defence of market share against growing supply from the US, Brazil, Canada and Guyana, although OPEC+ has not said so. In 2026 seven members kept adding 188,000 b/d a month from June to September as WTI fell below $70, then held quotas flat for October and November.
What is the oil price outlook for 2027?
In its Short-Term Energy Outlook of 6 October 2026, the EIA forecast Brent at an average of $84 and WTI at $80 in 2027, falling to about $74 and $70 in the fourth quarter as Gulf supply returns and inventories build by about 4.9 million b/d. The IEA expects 2027 demand to stay below 2025 levels, while OPEC expects growth of 2.55 million b/d. These are forecasts, and the EIA's 2026 price forecast rose by about $40 a barrel during the year.
What is the difference between Brent and WTI?
WTI is a US light sweet crude priced at Cushing, Oklahoma, where NYMEX WTI futures are physically delivered. Brent is the seaborne North Sea benchmark used to price most internationally traded crude; since 2023 its physical basket has included US WTI Midland. Brent usually trades above WTI. In our data the spread was $9.66 on 28 Oct 2026, compared with a five-year average of $4.40.
What is the breakeven oil price for US shale?
In the Dallas Fed Energy Survey released on 25 March 2026, producers said they needed an average WTI price of $66 a barrel to drill a new well profitably, ranging from $62 to $70 by region and $67 in the Permian Basin. Covering operating costs on existing wells takes about $43.
How did the 2026 Hormuz disruption affect oil prices?
After strikes on Iran began on 28 February 2026, flows through the Strait of Hormuz fell from about 20 million b/d to a fraction of that, and the IEA called it the largest supply disruption in the history of the oil market. Brent futures settled at $118.35 on 31 March. Prices fell back near $70 by early July as flows partly recovered, then rose again; the EIA says Brent spot reached $131 on 15 September. Brent futures settled at $111.30 on 28 Oct 2026. IEA members agreed to release 400 million barrels of emergency stocks, and the US announced 40 million barrels of SPR exchanges on 29 September.
Related Finbexo coverage
- OPEC+ raises output despite falling prices (July 2026)
- Oil oversupply concerns ahead of OPEC+ production hikes
- OPEC+ raises its output quota for September 2026
- Tanker attack heightens tensions in the Strait of Hormuz
- Oil price analysis: September 2026
- Oil price analysis: October 2026
- OPEC forecasts sustained oil demand growth in Asia
- European earnings and the energy windfall
Sources and method
- Price data: Yahoo Finance chart API, NYMEX WTI (CL=F) and ICE Brent (BZ=F) front-month futures daily settlements, retrieved by Finbexo; data as of 28 Oct 2026
- U.S. EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026 (released 6 Oct 2026; next release 10 Nov 2026), incl. Global oil markets and Tables 2 and 3a
- U.S. EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, January 2026 (13 Jan 2026)
- U.S. EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2025 (9 Sep 2025)
- U.S. EIA, spot price definitions
- IEA, Oil Market Report, October 2026 (14 Oct 2026)
- IEA, Oil Market Report, June 2026 (17 Jun 2026)
- IEA, Oil Market Report, April 2026 (14 Apr 2026)
- IEA, Oil Market Report, March 2026 (12 Mar 2026)
- IEA, Oil Market Report, May 2025 (15 May 2025)
- OPEC, Monthly Oil Market Report, October 2026
- OPEC press release: eight countries reaffirm the return of 2.2 mb/d; UAE +300 kb/d (3 Mar 2025)
- OPEC press release: 41st OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting (7 Jun 2026)
- OPEC press release: seven countries hold November 2026 production (4 Oct 2026)
- OPEC press release: DoC ministers meeting in Riyadh (12 Oct 2026)
- Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Energy Survey Q1 2026 (25 Mar 2026) and Q3 2026 (30 Sep 2026)
- ICE, Brent Crude futures contract specifications
- Calculations: Finbexo (method described above)